PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Mali ends crucial peace deal with rebels, raising concerns about a possible escalation of violence

BAMAKO,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center Mali (AP) — Mali’s junta has terminated a crucial agreement it signed with local rebels which helped maintain a fragile peace in the country’s northern region, the government announced, raising concerns about a possible escalation of violence.

The 2015 peace deal with the Tuareg rebel groups is ending “with immediate effect” because the rebels have failed to comply with its terms and because of “acts of hostility” by Algeria, which has been the main mediator in the peace efforts, government spokesperson Col. Abdoulaye Maiga said on state television Thursday night.

Neither Algeria nor the rebel groups have made any public comments in response to the announcement.

The campaign by the Tuareg rebels to create an independent state of Azawad in northern Mali threw the West African nation into a violent conflict for over a decade. In 2012, they dislodged the Malian military from the town, setting into motion a series of events that destabilized the country.

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The peace deal backed by Algeria and welcomed by the United Nations reduced hostilities in the northern region before it appeared to collapse last year after both parties accused the other of failing to comply with it. Malian authorities also announced the prosecution of some rebel leaders.

Maiga noted the “absolute inapplicability” of the peace agreement and “the inability of international mediation to ensure that the obligations incumbent on the signatory armed groups are respected.”

Analysts said the formal end of the deal did not come as a surprise following months of tension between the government and the rebel groups and after years in which both sides failed to fulfil its terms. Mali and Algeria have also fallen out over the deal.

The collapse of the agreement comes after the end of a U.N. peacekeeping mission deployed to help contain the rebellion. It also comes as Mali’s military leaders -– in power for more than three years -– struggle to contain an Islamic extremist insurgency that has ravaged the north since 2012.

“There is a high risk of even the jihadis strengthening their own forces because some of the groups that had signed the agreement may seek to work with the jihadis,” said Shaantanu Shankar, country analyst for Africa at the Economist Intelligence Unit, adding that the junta lacks the capacity to manage the situation.